Episode 4 Notes
What happened this last week
- Tornado video from NJ https://twitter.com/jenpopescu/status/1159208228510736384?s=20
- Dryness in Northern VA – likely to continue
- Baltimore got pounded with
amost 6 inches of rain – very localized!
Baltimore flood last night: Radar estimates about 3″ downtown in 2 hours, but over 5″ just SE. Such rainfall has less than 0.5% chance in any year.
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) August 7, 2019
Second extreme rain event in DC/Balt area this summer. And then there was Ellicott City in 2016 & 2018.https://t.co/QzV3wKVsGt pic.twitter.com/u5M2KgpVVG
- Front made it through Va – Stuck in NC
- Pulaski County Tornado – https://www.wdbj7.com/content/news/Multiple-areas-of-storm-damage-in-Pulaski-and-Giles-counties-531274751.html
#vawx One hour rotation track ending at 9:04 pm last night (8/9). Looks like the Pulaski storm really ramped up just as it crossed I-81 near mile marker 93. @NWSBlacksburg is conducting a storm survey this morning. pic.twitter.com/pzJ2XA865Z
— Chris White (@chrisvawx) August 10, 2019
Possible tornado damage in Pulaski Friday night around 8:15 p.m. Pics from Monica Noble. Part 2 #NRV #tornado? #vawx pic.twitter.com/fCpfrV1Ox1
— Jamey Singleton (@jameysingleton) August 10, 2019
What is coming
- NHC upping forecast https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-increases-chance-for-above-normal-hurricane-season
- Beautiful weekend – but pattern speaks heat and drier conditions – Short term dryness likely to keep lawns brown!
- Heat Wave Possible – Early next week
- CPC – Outlook – Ridging
- El Nino – Winter prospects – Final El Nino Advisory for this one!
Climate
- Have to highlight NYNJ Blog – https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2019/08/08/there-is-more-to-this-pattern-than-just-carbon-dioxide/
- Points:
- Greenland melting linked to a Negative NAO
- The solar minimum DOES have an impact – but not the coming ice age that some tout (there are extremes on both sides)
- the solar cycle’s influence on the Mesosphere and Stratosphere is not and does not influence the thermal state of the Troposphere – But this does impact the patterns – Like the NAO
- Green House Effect should lead to a weakening of the Polar jet stream
- We have seen record Jet Stream
- AGW theory failure is the handing of the stratospheric state which clearly notes the stratosphere would feature well below normal stratospheric temperatures
- We have seen the opposite
- The high latitude blocking we are seeing is directly connected to the state of the Sun and how the 500 MB pattern is evolving.
- CO2 output is influencing at an increase from 0.38% of the atmosphere to now 0.415% is the expansion of above-normal temperatures in the atmosphere overall. In short, we are enhancing the natural processes of our climate, not causing them
- the use of fossil fuels has aided to enhance the overall climate.
- must acknowledge the serious flaws in the climate models we use and the significant errors
- Points:
- Miami flooding https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/florida-miami-sea-level-rising-tide/
- Human Made Volcano https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2019/08/05/Scientists-consider-human-made-volcano-to-slow-global-warming/
Iceberg that can be used to cool areas https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-06-06/towing-an-iceberg-one-captain-s-plan-to-bring-drinking-water-to-4-million-people- Iceland plaque for first lost glacier due to climate change – https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/plaque-memorializes-first-icelandic-glacier-lost-climate-change-180972710/
- Solar minimum https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/08/10/why-solar-activity-and-cosmic-rays-cant-explain-global-warming/amp/?__twitter_impression=true